Understanding Patient Beliefs in Using Technology to Manage Diabetes: Path Analysis Model From a National Web-Based Sample.

BACKGROUND:  With 425 million individuals globally living with diabetes, it is critical to support the self-management of this life-threatening condition. However, adherence and engagement with existing technologies are inadequate and need further research. OBJECTIVE:  The objective of our study was to develop an integrated belief model that helps identify the significant constructs in predicting intention to use a diabetes self-management device for the detection of hypoglycemia. METHODS:  Adults with type 1 diabetes living in the United States were recruited through Qualtrics to take a web-based questionnaire that assessed their preferences for a device that monitors their tremors and alerts them of the onset of hypoglycemia. As part of this questionnaire, a section focused on eliciting their response to behavioral constructs from the Health Belief Model, Technology Acceptance Model, and others. RESULTS:  A total of 212 eligible participants responded to the Qualtrics survey. Intention to use a device for the self-management of diabetes was well predicted (R2=0.65; F12,199=27.19; P<.001) by 4 main constructs. The most significant constructs were perceived usefulness (ß=.33; P<.001) and perceived health threat (ß=.55; P<.001) followed by cues to action (ß=.17; P<.001) and a negative effect from resistance to change (ß=-.19; P<.001). Older age (ß=.025; P<.001) led to an increase in their perceived health threat. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals to use such a device, they need to perceive it as useful, perceive diabetes as life-threatening, regularly remember to perform actions to manage their condition, and exhibit less resistance to change. The model predicted the intention to use a diabetes self-management device as well, with several constructs found to be significant. This mental modeling approach can be complemented in future work by field-testing with physical prototype devices and assessing their interaction with the device longitudinally.

Hypoglycemia Detection Using Hand Tremors: Home Study of Patients With Type 1 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes affects millions of people worldwide and is steadily increasing. A serious condition associated with diabetes is low glucose levels (hypoglycemia). Monitoring blood glucose is usually performed by invasive methods or intrusive devices, and these devices are currently not available to all patients with diabetes. Hand tremor is a significant symptom of hypoglycemia, as nerves and muscles are powered by blood sugar. However, to our knowledge, no validated tools or algorithms exist to monitor and detect hypoglycemic events via hand tremors. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we propose a noninvasive method to detect hypoglycemic events based on hand tremors using accelerometer data. METHODS: We analyzed triaxial accelerometer data from a smart watch recorded from 33 patients with type 1 diabetes for 1 month. Time and frequency domain features were extracted from acceleration signals to explore different machine learning models to classify and differentiate between hypoglycemic and nonhypoglycemic states. RESULTS: The mean duration of the hypoglycemic state was 27.31 (SD 5.15) minutes per day for each patient. On average, patients had 1.06 (SD 0.77) hypoglycemic events per day. The ensemble learning model based on random forest, support vector machines, and k-nearest neighbors had the best performance, with a precision of 81.5% and a recall of 78.6%. The results were validated using continuous glucose monitor readings as ground truth. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the proposed approach can be a potential tool to detect hypoglycemia and can serve as a proactive, nonintrusive alert mechanism for hypoglycemic events.

Detection of Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemia Using Noninvasive Wearable Sensors: ECG and Accelerometry.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring glucose excursions is important in diabetes management. This can be achieved using continuous glucose monitors (CGMs). However, CGMs are expensive and invasive. Thus, alternative low-cost noninvasive wearable sensors capable of predicting glycemic excursions could be a game changer to manage diabetes. METHODS: In this article, we explore two noninvasive sensor modalities, electrocardiograms (ECGs) and accelerometers, collected on five healthy participants over two weeks, to predict both hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic excursions. We extract 29 features encompassing heart rate variability features from the ECG, and time- and frequency-domain features from the accelerometer. We evaluated two machine-learning approaches to predict glycemic excursions: a classification model and a regression model. RESULTS: The best model for both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia detection was the regression model based on ECG and accelerometer data, yielding 76% sensitivity and specificity for hypoglycemia and 79% sensitivity and specificity for hyperglycemia. This had an improvement of 5% in sensitivity and specificity for both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia when compared with using ECG data alone. CONCLUSIONS: Electrocardiogram is a promising alternative not only to detect hypoglycemia but also to predict hyperglycemia. Supplementing ECG data with contextual information from accelerometer data can improve glucose prediction.

Factors affecting the COVID-19 risk in the US counties: an innovative approach by combining unsupervised and supervised learning.

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported lower COVID-19 related cases and death. In this paper, the factors that could affect the risk of COVID-19 infection and death were analyzed in county level. An innovative method by using K-means clustering and several classification models is utilized to determine the most critical factors. Results showed that longitudinal coordinate and population density, latitudinal coordinate, percentage of non-white people, percentage of uninsured people, percent of people below poverty, percentage of Elderly people, number of ICU beds per 10,000 people, percentage of smokers were the most significant attributes.

Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling.

Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R2 value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.

Improved Low-Glucose Predictive Alerts Based on Sustained Hypoglycemia: Model Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Predictive alerts for impending hypoglycemic events enable persons with type 1 diabetes to take preventive actions and avoid serious consequences. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a prediction model for hypoglycemic events with a low false alert rate, high sensitivity and specificity, and good generalizability to new patients and time periods. METHODS: Performance improvement by focusing on sustained hypoglycemic events, defined as glucose values less than 70 mg/dL for at least 15 minutes, was explored. Two different modeling approaches were considered: (1) a classification-based method to directly predict sustained hypoglycemic events, and (2) a regression-based prediction of glucose at multiple time points in the prediction horizon and subsequent inference of sustained hypoglycemia. To address the generalizability and robustness of the model, two different validation mechanisms were considered: (1) patient-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new patients), and (2) time-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new time periods). RESULTS: This study utilized data from 110 patients over 30-90 days comprising 1.6 million continuous glucose monitoring values under normal living conditions. The model accurately predicted sustained events with >97% sensitivity and specificity for both 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons. The false alert rate was kept to <25%. The results were consistent across patient- and time-based validation strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Providing alerts focused on sustained events instead of all hypoglycemic events reduces the false alert rate and improves sensitivity and specificity. It also results in models that have better generalizability to new patients and time periods.

Feature-Based Machine Learning Model for Real-Time Hypoglycemia Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Hypoglycemia is a serious health concern in youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Real-time data from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) can be used to predict hypoglycemic risk, allowing patients to take timely intervention measures. METHODS: A machine learning model is developed for probabilistic prediction of hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL) in 30- and 60-minute time horizons based on CGM datasets obtained from 112 patients over a range of 90 days consisting of over 1.6 million CGM values under normal living conditions. A comprehensive set of features relevant for hypoglycemia are developed and a parsimonious subset with most influence on predicting hypoglycemic risk is identified. Model performance is evaluated both with and without contextual information on insulin and carbohydrate intake. RESULTS: The model predicted hypoglycemia with >91% sensitivity for 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons while maintaining specificity >90%. Inclusion of insulin and carbohydrate data yielded performance improvement for 60-minute but not for 30-minute predictions. Model performance was highest for nocturnal hypoglycemia (~95% sensitivity). Shortterm (less than one hour) and medium-term (one to four hours) features for good prediction performance are identified. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative feature identification facilitated high performance for hypoglycemia risk prediction in pediatric youth with T1D. Timely alerts of impending hypoglycemia may enable proactive measures to avoid severe hypoglycemia and achieve optimal glycemic control. The model will be deployed on a patient-facing smartphone application in an upcoming pilot study.

Making gene drive biodegradable.

Gene drive systems have long been sought to modify mosquito populations and thus combat malaria and dengue. Powerful gene drive systems have been developed in laboratory experiments, but may never be used in practice unless they can be shown to be acceptable through rigorous field-based testing. Such testing is complicated by the anticipated difficulty in removing gene drive transgenes from nature. Here, we consider the inclusion of self-elimination mechanisms into the design of homing-based gene drive transgenes. This approach not only caused the excision of the gene drive transgene, but also generates a transgene-free allele resistant to further action by the gene drive. Strikingly, our models suggest that this mechanism, acting at a modest rate (10%) as part of a single-component system, would be sufficient to cause the rapid reversion of even the most robust homing-based gene drive transgenes, without the need for further remediation. Modelling also suggests that unlike gene drive transgenes themselves, self-eliminating transgene approaches are expected to tolerate substantial rates of failure. Thus, self-elimination technology may permit rigorous field-based testing of gene drives by establishing strict time limits on the existence of gene drive transgenes in nature, rendering them essentially biodegradable. This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Classification of Fatigue Phases in Healthy and Diabetic Adults Using Wearable Sensor.

Fatigue is defined as "a loss of force-generating capacity" in a muscle that can intensify tremor. Tremor quantification can facilitate early detection of fatigue onset so that preventative or corrective controls can be taken to minimize work-related injuries and improve the performance of tasks that require high-levels of accuracy. We focused on developing a system that recognizes and classifies voluntary effort and detects phases of fatigue. The experiment was designed to extract and evaluate hand-tremor data during the performance of both rest and effort tasks. The data were collected from the wrist and finger of the participant's dominant hand. To investigate tremor, time, frequency domain features were extracted from the accelerometer signal for segments of 45 and 90 samples/window. Analysis using advanced signal processing and machine-learning techniques such as decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and ensemble classifiers were applied to discover models to classify rest and effort tasks and the phases of fatigue. Evaluation of the classifier's performance was assessed based on various metrics using 5-fold cross-validation. The recognition of rest and effort tasks using an ensemble classifier based on the random subspace and window length of 45 samples was deemed to be the most accurate (96.1%). The highest accuracy (~98%) that distinguished between early and late fatigue phases was achieved using the same classifier and window length.

Neural Signatures of Handgrip Fatigue in Type 1 Diabetic Men and Women.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with reduced muscular strength and greater muscle fatigability. Along with changes in muscular mechanisms, T1D is also linked to structural changes in the brain. How the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying muscle fatigue is altered with T1D and sex related differences of these mechanisms are still not well investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of T1D on the neural correlates of handgrip fatigue and examine sex and T1D related differences in neuromuscular performance parameters, neural activation and functional connectivity patterns between the motor regions of the brain. Forty-two adults, balanced by condition (healthy vs T1D) and sex (male vs female), and performed submaximal isometric handgrip contractions until voluntary exhaustion. Initial strength, endurance time, strength loss, force variability, and complexity measures were collected. Additionally, hemodynamic responses from motor-function related cortical regions, using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), were obtained. Overall, females exhibited lower initial strength (p < 0.0001), and greater strength loss (p = 0.023) than males. While initial strength was significantly lower in the T1D group (p = 0.012) compared to the healthy group, endurance times and strength loss were comparable between the two groups. Force complexity, measured as approximate entropy, was found to be lower throughout the experiment for the T1D group (p = 0.0378), indicating lower online motor adaptability. Although, T1D and healthy groups fatigued similarly, only the T1D group exhibited increased neural activation in the left (p = 0.095) and right (p = 0.072) supplementary motor areas (SMA) over time. A sex × condition × fatigue interaction effect (p = 0.044) showed that while increased activation was observed in both T1D females and healthy males from the Early to Middle phase, this was not observed in healthy females or T1D males. These findings demonstrate that T1D adults had lower adaptability to fatigue which they compensated for by increasing neural effort. This study highlights the importance of examining both neural and motor performance signatures when investigating the impact of chronic conditions on neuromuscular fatigue. Additionally, the findings have implications for developing intervention strategies for training, rehabilitation, and ergonomics considerations for individuals with chronic conditions.

Diabetes Management Experience and the State of Hypoglycemia: National Online Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Hypoglycemia, or low blood sugar levels, in people with diabetes can be a serious life-threatening condition, and serious outcomes can be avoided if low levels of blood sugar are proactively detected. Although technologies exist to detect the onset of hypoglycemia, they are invasive or costly or exhibit a high incidence of false alarms. Tremors are commonly reported symptoms of hypoglycemia and may be used to detect hypoglycemic events, yet their onset is not well researched or understood. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand diabetic patients' perceptions of hypoglycemic tremors, as well as their user experiences with technology to manage diabetes, and expectations from a self-management tool to ultimately inform the design of a noninvasive and cost-effective technology that detects tremors associated with hypoglycemia. METHODS: A cross-sectional internet panel survey was administered to adult patients with type 1 diabetes using the Qualtrics platform in May 2019. The questions focused on 3 main constructs: (1) perceived experiences of hypoglycemia, (2) experiences and expectations about a diabetes management device and mobile app, and (3) beliefs and attitudes regarding intention to use a diabetes management device. The analysis in this paper focuses on the first two constructs. Nonparametric tests were used to analyze the Likert scale data, with a Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Games-Howell post hoc test as applicable, for subgroup comparisons to highlight differences in perceived frequency, severity, and noticeability of hypoglycemic tremors across age, gender, years living with diabetes, and physical activity. RESULTS: Data from 212 respondents (129 [60.8%] females) revealed statistically significant differences in perceived noticeability of tremors by gender, whereby males noticed their tremors more (P<.001), and age, with the older population reporting lower noticeability than the young and middle age groups (P<.001). Individuals living longer with diabetes noticed their tremors significantly less than those with diabetes for ≤1 year but not in terms of frequency or severity. Additionally, the majority of our participants (150/212, 70.7%) reported experience with diabetes-monitoring devices. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the need for cost-efficient and noninvasive continuous monitoring technologies. Although hypoglycemic tremors were perceived to occur frequently, such tremors were not found to be severe compared with other symptoms such as sweating, which was the highest rated symptom in our study. Using a combination of tremor and galvanic skin response sensors may show promise in detecting the onset of hypoglycemic events.

Classifying Major Depressive Disorder Using fNIRS During Motor Rehabilitation.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has shown to negatively impact physical recovery in a variety of medical events (e.g., stroke and spinal cord injuries). Yet depression assessments, which are typically subjective in nature, are seldom considered to develop or guide rehabilitation strategies. The present study developed a predictive depression assessment technique using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) that can be rapidly integrated or performed concurrently with existing physical rehabilitation tasks. Thirty-one volunteers, including 14 adults clinically diagnosed with MDD and 17 healthy adults, participated in the study. Brain oxy-hemodynamic (HbO) responses were recorded using a 16-channel wearable continuous-wave fNIRS device while the volunteers performed the Grasp and Release Test in four 16-minute blocks. Ten features, extracted from HbO signals, from each channel served as inputs to XGBoost and Random Forest algorithms developed for each block and combination of successive blocks. Top 5 common features resulted in a classification accuracy of 92.6%, sensitivity of 84.8%, and specificity of 91.7% using the XGBoost classifier. This study identified mean HbO, full width half maximum and kurtosis, as specific neuromarkers, for predicting MDD across specific depression-related regions of interests (i.e., dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex). Our results suggest that a wearable fNIRS head probe monitoring specific brain regions, and limiting extraction to few features, can enable quick setup and rapid assessment of depression in patients. The overarching goal is to embed predictive neurotechnology during post-stroke and post-spinal-cord-injury rehabilitation sessions to monitor patients' depression symptomology so as to actively guide decisions about motor therapies.

Predicting long-term type 2 diabetes with support vector machine using oral glucose tolerance test.

Diabetes is a large healthcare burden worldwide. There is substantial evidence that lifestyle modifications and drug intervention can prevent diabetes, therefore, an early identification of high risk individuals is important to design targeted prevention strategies. In this paper, we present an automatic tool that uses machine learning techniques to predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data generated from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was used to develop a predictive model based on the support vector machine (SVM). We trained and validated the models using the OGTT and demographic data of 1,492 healthy individuals collected during the San Antonio Heart Study. This study collected plasma glucose and insulin concentrations before glucose intake and at three time-points thereafter (30, 60 and 120 min). Furthermore, personal information such as age, ethnicity and body-mass index was also a part of the data-set. Using 11 OGTT measurements, we have deduced 61 features, which are then assigned a rank and the top ten features are shortlisted using minimum redundancy maximum relevance feature selection algorithm. All possible combinations of the 10 best ranked features were used to generate SVM based prediction models. This research shows that an individual's plasma glucose levels, and the information derived therefrom have the strongest predictive performance for the future development of T2DM. Significantly, insulin and demographic features do not provide additional performance improvement for diabetes prediction. The results of this work identify the parsimonious clinical data needed to be collected for an efficient prediction of T2DM. Our approach shows an average accuracy of 96.80% and a sensitivity of 80.09% obtained on a holdout set.

Post-acute care referral in United States of America: a multiregional study of factors associated with referral destination in a cohort of patients with coronary artery bypass graft or valve replacement.

BACKGROUND: The use of post-acute care (PAC) for cardiovascular conditions is highly variable across geographical regions. Although PAC benefits include lower readmission rates, better clinical outcomes, and lower mortality, referral patterns vary widely, raising concerns about substandard care and inflated costs. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with PAC referral decisions at acute care discharge. METHODS: This study is a retrospective Electronic Health Records (EHR) based review of a cohort of patients with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and valve replacement (VR). EHR records were extracted from the Cerner Health-Facts Data warehouse and covered 49 hospitals in the United States of America (U.S.) from January 2010 to December 2015. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify associations of 29 variables comprising patient characteristics, hospital profiles, and patient conditions at discharge. RESULTS: The cohort had 14,224 patients with mean age 63.5 years, with 10,234 (71.9%) male and 11,946 (84%) Caucasian, with 5827 (40.96%) being discharged to home without additional care (Home), 5226 (36.74%) to home health care (HHC), 1721 (12.10%) to skilled nursing facilities (SNF), 1168 (8.22%) to inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRF), 164 (1.15%) to long term care hospitals (LTCH), and 118 (0.83%) to other locations. Census division, hospital size, teaching hospital status, gender, age, marital status, length of stay, and Charlson comorbidity index were identified as highly significant variables (p- values < 0.001) that influence the PAC referral decision. Overall model accuracy was 62.6%, and multiclass Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were for Home: 0.72; HHC: 0.72; SNF: 0.58; IRF: 0.53; LTCH: 0.52, and others: 0.46. CONCLUSIONS: Census location of the acute care hospital was highly associated with PAC referral practices, as was hospital capacity, with larger hospitals referring patients to PAC at a greater rate than smaller hospitals. Race and gender were also statistically significant, with Asians, Hispanics, and Native Americans being less likely to be referred to PAC compared to Caucasians, and female patients being more likely to be referred than males. Additional analysis indicated that PAC referral practices are also influenced by the mix of PAC services offered in each region.

Correction to: The past, present and future of opioid withdrawal assessment: a scoping review of scales and technologies.

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported an error in one of the authors' names. In this Correction the incorrect and correct author name are shown. The original publication of this article has been corrected.

The past, present and future of opioid withdrawal assessment: a scoping review of scales and technologies.

BACKGROUND: A common challenge with all opioid use disorder treatment paths is withdrawal management. When withdrawal symptoms are not effectively monitored and managed, they lead to relapse which often leads to deadly overdose. A prerequisite for effective opioid withdrawal management is early identification and assessment of withdrawal symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research was to describe the type and content of opioid withdrawal monitoring methods, including surveys, scales and technology, to identify gaps in research and practice that could inform the design and development of novel withdrawal management technologies. METHODS: A scoping review of literature was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar were searched using a combination of search terms. RESULTS: Withdrawal scales are the main method of assessing and quantifying opioid withdrawal intensity. The search yielded 18 different opioid withdrawal scales used within the last 80 years. While traditional opioid withdrawal scales for patient monitoring are commonly used, most scales rely heavily on patients' self-report and frequent observations, and generally suffer from lack of consensus on the criteria used for evaluation, mode of administration, type of reporting (e.g., scales used), frequency of administration, and assessment window. CONCLUSIONS: It is timely to investigate how opioid withdrawal scales can be complemented or replaced with reliable monitoring technologies. Use of noninvasive wearable sensors to continuously monitor physiologic changes associated with opioid withdrawal represents a potential to extend monitoring outside clinical setting.

Predicting aquatic development and mortality rates of Aedes aegypti.

Mosquito-borne pathogens continue to be a significant burden within human populations, with Aedes aegypti continuing to spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus throughout the world. Using data from a previously conducted study, a linear regression model was constructed to predict the aquatic development rates based on the average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. Additional experiments were conducted with different parameters of average temperature and larval density to validate the model. Using a paired t-test, the model predictions were compared to experimental data and showed that the prediction models were not significantly different for average pupation rate, adult emergence rate, and juvenile mortality rate. The models developed will be useful for modeling and estimating the upper limit of the number of Aedes aegypti in the environment under different temperature, diurnal temperature variations, and larval densities.

Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016.

Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015-2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis: A comprehensive and integrative multi-modeling approach to disease prediction and management.

The impact of infectious disease on human populations is a function of many factors including environmental conditions, vector dynamics, transmission mechanics, social and cultural behaviors, and public policy. A comprehensive framework for disease management must fully connect the complete disease lifecycle, including emergence from reservoir populations, zoonotic vector transmission, and impact on human societies. The Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis is a software environment and conceptual architecture for data integration, situational awareness, visualization, prediction, and intervention assessment. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis automatically collects biosurveillance data using natural language processing, integrates structured and unstructured data from multiple sources, applies advanced machine learning, and uses multi-modeling for analyzing disease dynamics and testing interventions in complex, heterogeneous populations. In the illustrative case studies, natural language processing from social media, news feeds, and websites was used for information extraction, biosurveillance, and situation awareness. Classification machine learning algorithms (support vector machines, random forests, and boosting) were used for disease predictions.

Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of Aedes aegypti.

The increasing range of Aedes aegypti, vector for Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and other viruses, has brought attention to the need to understand the population and transmission dynamics of this mosquito. It is well understood that environmental factors and breeding site characteristics play a role in organismal development and the potential to transmit pathogens. In this study, we observe the impact of larval density in combination with diurnal temperature on the time to pupation, emergence, and mortality of Aedes aegypti. Experiments were conducted at two diurnal temperature ranges based on 10 years of historical temperatures of Houston, Texas (21-32°C and 26.5-37.5°C). Experiments at constant temperatures (26.5°C, 32°C) were also conducted for comparison. At each temperature setting, five larval densities were observed (0.2, 1, 2, 4, 5 larvae per mL of water). Data collected shows significant differences in time to first pupation, time of first emergence, maximum rate of pupation, time of maximum rate of pupation, maximum rate of emergence, time of maximum rate of emergence, final average proportion of adult emergence, and average proportion of larval mortality. Further, data indicates a significant interactive effect between temperature fluctuation and larval density on these measures. Thus, wild population estimates should account for temperature fluctuations, larval density, and their interaction in low-volume containers.